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Loading ...Terms like crisis, devastation, etc., have become frequent fliers in the lexicon of climate change discussion to such a degree that the short attention span theater within the cultural landscape of our western ways becomes overpowered by funk. But desensitization to terminology is a weak excuse in situations that are, quite literally, life and death. Try this with me.
Crisis
Climate change is responsible for 300,000 deaths per year. Now.
Devastation
In two decades, the number of deaths caused yearly by climate change is expected to rise to half a million.
The Global Humanitarian Forum (headed by Kofi Annan) has released a report titled, “Human Impact Report: Climate Change – The Anatomy of a Silent Crisis“. The report precedes the December 09 UN Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen. The Copenhagen conference takes on greatly enhanced heightened importance in light of the post-Kyoto mindset that was allowed and enabled with the help of a compliant media during the mistake that we can simply call W.
This report has been realized at the last possible moment. It is being issued just six months prior to the meeting of nations at Copenhagen, Denmark, in December 2009. Copenhagen will conclude negotiations begun nearly two years ago for a new international climate agreement to succeed the Kyoto Protocol after 2012. Even the most ambitious climate agreement will take years to slow or reverse global warming. A global carbon economy has been the basis of all productive efforts since centuries. Emissions are still steadily increasing, and the world population is set to grow by forty percent by 2050.
If we do not reverse current trends by close to 2020, however, we may have failed. Global warming will pass the widely acknowledged danger level of two degrees, since there is an approximately 20 year delay between emission reductions and the halting of their warming effect. This report clearly demonstrates that climate change is already highly dangerous at well below one degree of warming. Two degrees would be catastrophic.
Weak political leadership as evident today is all the more alarming then. It is not, however, surprising, since so few people are aware of just how much is at stake. That we are already this far into the most important negotiations ever for the future of this planet without a clear idea of the full impact of climate change on human society speaks volumes in itself. In this respect, I hope that the report will change political attitudes, spur public debate and more research.
Copenhagen needs to be the most ambitious international agreement ever negotiated. The alternative is mass starvation, mass migration, and mass sickness. If political leaders cannot assume responsibility for Copenhagen, they choose instead responsibility for failing humanity. In 2009, national leadership goes beyond the next elections, and far beyond national borders.
The statistics from the U.S. Energy Information Administration help to solidify the GHF’s case.
Global emissions of the main greenhouse gas carbon dioxide will jump more than 39 percent by 2030 without new policies and binding pacts to cut global warming pollution, the top U.S. energy forecast agency said on Wednesday.
Nearly 200 nations are set to meet late this year in Copenhagen to hash out a new agreement to control greenhouse gases as the Kyoto Protocol expires in 2012.
U.S. President Barack Obama and leaders in both the House and Senate hope to regulate the gases with a cap and trade market in emissions.
Without new agreements to foster emerging technologies such as solar and wind power and burial of carbon dioxide underground, world emissions of the gas should hit 40.4 billion metric tons by 2030, up from 29 billion metric tons in 2006, said the Energy Information Administration, the independent statistics arm of the Department of Energy.
During the previous occupation of the White House, we who classify ourselves as pro-environment watched from the sidelines with a sense that our greatest hope would be to run out the clock on the Bush administration. So now that we’ve actually gotten to the other side of midnight, what will you choose to do?
Update:
The headline claim of 300,000 comes directly from the GHF report. To be fair, they do acknowledge a margin of error. This from the executive summary:
The findings of report indicate that every year climate change leaves over 300,000 people dead, 325 million people seriously affected, and economic losses of US$125 billion. 4 billion people are vulnerable, and 500 million people are at extreme risk. These figures represent averages based on projected trends over many years and carry a significant margin of error. The real numbers could be lower or higher. The different figures are each explained in more detail and in context in the relevant sections of the report. Detailed information describing how these figures have been calculated is also included in the respective sections and in the end matter of the report.
These already alarming figures may prove too conservative. Weather-related disasters alone cause significant economic losses. Over the past five years this toll has gone as high as $230 billion, with several years around a $100 billion and single year around $50 billion. Such disasters have increased in frequency and severity over the past 30 years in part due to climate change. Over and above these cost are impacts on health, water supply and other shocks not taken into account. Some would say that the worst years are not representative and they may not be. But scientists expect that years like these will be repeated more often in the near future.
Methodology here (pdf).
